Commerzbank strategists predict that Brent crude oil prices will gradually decline toward levels seen before the conflict, as covert tanker operations and supply diversions help restore output from the Gulf region. These 'dark transits'—undisclosed tanker movements—are playing a significant role in normalizing supply chains.
According to FX Street, the increased activity in covert tanker routes suggests a steady improvement in Gulf supply, which could alleviate some of the upward pressure on Brent crude prices seen since the war began.
For Japanese investors, this forecast is particularly relevant as shifts in global oil prices directly impact energy costs and inflation, influencing both equities and FX markets.