Commerzbank Lowers India Growth Forecast, Expects RBI to Hold Rates in Fiscal 2026-2027

Commerzbank has revised its projection for India’s economic growth in fiscal 2026-2027 to 6.7%, down from a previous estimate of 8%, according to FX Street. The bank’s analysts, Dr. Henry Hao and Moses Lim, attribute the sustained expansion to strong domestic demand and export performance.

Inflation is expected to settle at 5%, comfortably within the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) target band of 2-6%. This outlook supports the central bank’s decision to maintain its policy rate at 5.25%, as per Commerzbank’s forecast reported by FX Street.

For Japanese investors and market participants, India’s moderated growth coupled with controlled inflation presents a stable environment for continued engagement in Indian equities and the Indian Rupee, amid evolving global monetary conditions.