USD/JPY delivered the most dramatic week in the FX market since mid-2024, oscillating in a range of more than 600 pips as Japanese intervention met a backdrop of BOJ caution and Fed uncertainty.
Day-by-Day Breakdown
- Monday: BOJ holds rates at 0.75%, cuts growth forecast. USD/JPY briefly dips to 155.20 on hawkish BOJ minutes before reversing higher.
- Tuesday–Wednesday: FOMC meeting dominates. The 8–4 split vote initially supports USD, pushing USD/JPY toward 159.50.
- Thursday: USD/JPY breaks 160. Finance Minister issues "final warning." Japanese intervention begins in late Tokyo session, driving a 400-pip reversal to 155.50–156.00.
- Friday: Pair stabilises around 156.80–157.20 as market digests events.
Key Levels Ahead
The intervention high of 161.80 now serves as a major resistance cap. On the downside, the intervention-driven low of 155.50 is the first support; a break below 155.00 would bring 152.50 (the March 2026 low) into focus. The BOJ's next scheduled meeting is in June, where any hike signal would be yen-positive.
Options Market
Implied volatility on one-month USD/JPY options rose to 11.2% — the highest since July 2024 — reflecting positioning uncertainty on both sides. Risk reversals turned yen-positive for the first time since November 2025.