TD Securities projects that the US economy will experience sideways growth in 2026, with real GDP expanding by 2.0% year-over-year in the fourth quarter and unemployment stabilizing around 4.3%, according to FX Street. This forecast suggests growth slightly below the long-term trend amid ongoing uncertainties.
The outlook highlights potential risks stemming from the ongoing conflict in Iran and possible oil price shocks, which could weigh on economic momentum. These factors contribute to a cautious stance on US economic performance in the coming years.
For Japanese investors and markets, understanding the US growth trajectory is crucial, as it influences global risk sentiment and currency movements, particularly in the FX and equity sectors.