ING’s analyst Frantisek Taborsky expects the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) to hold its key interest rate steady at 37.00%. This outlook is driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions, oil prices remaining above $90 per barrel, and recent tariff changes that limit the bank’s ability to offset rising energy costs, according to FX Street.
The combination of these factors constrains the CBRT’s monetary policy flexibility, making a rate cut unlikely in the near term. Maintaining the high interest rate aims to support the Turkish Lira and manage inflationary pressures amid these external challenges.
For Japanese investors, the stability of Turkey’s interest rate environment is a notable factor when considering emerging market exposure, especially as global energy prices and geopolitical risks continue to influence FX and equities markets.